Heat Pump Statistics & Facts [Updated May 2025]

James Welford
May 13
8 min read

Updated: May 15

Heat Pumps: All you need to know about how the market for heat pumps is progressing

In the UK the market for heatpumps is still far lower than that for traditional gas boilers. But, with Government grants available, an increasing number of installers and homeowners pairing the systems up with other renewable sources of energy like solar, the market is starting to establish itself. These are the key heat pump statistics and facts from the last few years:

Key Heat pump Facts

📈 Heat pump Market Growth & Sales

98,469 hydronic heat pumps were sold in the UK in 2024, marking a 63% increase from 2023.
Breakdown of heat pump sales growth:
- Air-to-Water Monobloc units saw a 64% increase.
- The "Other" category (including Domestic Hot Water Heat Pumps, Exhaust Air Heat Pumps, and Integrated Hybrid Heat Pumps) experienced a 100% growth.
This surge follows a modest 4% growth between 2022 and 2023, indicating a significant acceleration in adoption.

👷 Heat pump Workforce & Installer Capacity

In 2024, 9,062 individuals completed recognized heat pump training qualifications, a 15% increase from 2023.
As of September 2024, there are 1,935 MCS-certified heat pump installation businesses in the UK.
The Heat Pump Association estimates that 33,700 full-time installers will be needed to meet the UK's heat pump deployment targets.

🏡 Public Awareness & Adoption of heat pumps

77% of UK adults were aware of air source heat pumps in Winter 2024, up from 71% in Winter 2021.
25% of owner-occupiers either have installed or are likely to install an air source heat pump when replacing their heating system, up from 19% in Winter 2021.
23% of the public reported knowing "a lot or a fair amount" about air source heat pumps, indicating room for increased public education.

💷 Costs & Government Support for heat pump tech

Typical installation costs:
- Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHP): £7,000 to £18,000.
- Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP): Approximately £20,000.
The Boiler Upgrade Scheme offers grants of up to £7,500 to support heat pump installations.
In 2024, over 40,000 installations were supported by government subsidies.

🏘️ Heat pump Policy Targets & Deployment

The UK government aims for 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028.
The Climate Change Committee recommends that 10% of UK households have heat pumps by 2030.
In 2024, MCS heat pump notifications accounted for 60% of total sales, reflecting the impact of government schemes like the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and the Energy Company Obligation.

🔧 Technical Performance & Efficiency

Heat pumps are 80% more carbon-efficient than traditional gas boilers and can reduce annual heating bills by £200 to £500.
Modern heat pumps operate efficiently even in cold temperatures and have a lifespan of 15–20 years.

🏘️ Social Housing & Retrofit Programs

Under the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund (SHDF):
- Approximately 43,200 measures were installed in 22,300 households by July 2024.
- SHDF Wave 2.1 delivered around 12,000 measures in 6,500 households.
The Energy Company Obligation (ECO4) scheme installed 666,900 measures in 207,700 households by September 2024.

🧩 Challenges & Barriers

High upfront costs remain a significant barrier to adoption, with installations ranging from £3,000 to nearly £50,000, depending on system type and complexity.
Public knowledge about heat pumps is limited; only 23% of people report knowing "a lot or a fair amount" about air source heat pumps.
There is a need for increased public awareness campaigns and more robust certification requirements to ensure quality installations.

Regional Insights: Heat pump take-up around the world

European Union

Europe has taken a leading role in heat pump adoption. Sales in the EU surged 35% from 2020 to 2021, amounting to more than 2.2 million new units. In 2022 alone, EU sales rose 39%—a record growth. France led the bloc with over 621,000 units sold, followed by Italy and Germany. In total, Europe has approximately 20 million heat pumps installed, with 14% of buildings now equipped.

Still, significant disparities exist across member states. Norway leads with 60% household penetration, followed by Sweden (43%), Finland (41%) and Estonia (34%). In contrast, the UK lags severely behind, with just 412 heat pumps per 100,000 people, compared to a European average of 3,068.

The EU’s REPowerEU plan aims to double annual heat pump installations, adding 60 million units by 2030. This would reduce gas use by 2 billion cubic metres in the first year alone and help meet the EU’s 2030 climate goal of reducing emissions by 55%. In 2022, EU heat pumps avoided 54 megatonnes of CO₂ emissions.

United Kingdom

Despite policy intentions, the UK remains a laggard. Only 55,000 units were sold in 2022—less than one-tenth of France's figure. However, the UK government’s Energy Security Bill sets an ambitious target of 600,000 heat pump installations annually by 2028. This shift is not only climate-critical but strategic: declining North Sea gas production means the UK will need to import 60% more gas by 2035, underscoring the urgency of domestic, low-carbon heating alternatives.

Adopting this target could yield up to 55,000 new jobs—up from 2,000 currently in the industry.

United States

The U.S. market saw a significant milestone in 2022, with heat pump sales (4.3 million units) outpacing gas furnace sales (3.9 million). The trend is strongest in the Southeast: South Carolina, North Carolina, and Alabama each have over 40% household adoption. The U.S. residential market was valued at $13 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR through 2030.

China

As the world’s largest producer and user of heat pumps, China accounted for 33% of global installations by 2020, with over 58 million units in operation. In 2022, sales of air-to-water heat pumps grew 20%, with over 1 million air-source heat pumps sold that year alone. China also dominates global manufacturing, producing approximately 40% of the world’s heat pumps, most of which are exported to Europe.

Technology Breakdown: A Primer on the Three Core Heat Pump Types

Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs)

Market Share: Accounted for 60% of global heat pump sales in 2021.
Efficiency: Typical Coefficient of Performance (CoP) around 3.0–3.5, translating to 300–350% efficiency.
Installation Costs (UK): Between £7,000 and £13,000.
Savings: Potential savings of up to £1,500 per year for an average UK household; may cost more if replacing modern gas systems.
Popularity: The most widely used type, especially in urban and retrofit contexts.

Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs)

Efficiency: CoP as high as 4.8. Underground pipes can last 70–100 years.
Emissions Reduction: Can reduce carbon emissions by 2.3 to 11 tonnes annually, depending on the system replaced.
Installation Costs: £24,000 (trench systems) to £49,000 (borehole systems).
Savings: Annual heating bill savings up to £2,500, though costs may rise £200 in certain configurations.
Adoption: Account for just 2.5% of installed systems in the EU due to higher upfront cost and complexity.

Water Source Heat Pumps (WSHPs)

Efficiency: CoP up to 6.0—the highest among heat pump technologies.
Application: Suited for properties near stable water sources like lakes or rivers.
Savings: Can reduce annual heating costs by £395–£2,000 depending on the heating system replaced.
Market Value: Valued at $907.5 million globally in 2021; forecasted to reach $1.4 billion by 2030.
Adoption Model: Includes both closed-loop (heat exchange coils submerged in water) and open-loop systems (direct water use).

Heat pump statistics: Market Forecast and Investment Trends

The global heat pump market is entering a phase of rapid expansion, spurred by regulatory shifts, decarbonization goals, and an intensifying need for energy security. In 2022, the market was valued at $81.58 billion, with forecasts projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% through to 2030.

By 2030, analysts expect the global heat pump market to surpass $150 billion, driven largely by demand across Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific. Governments are responding with substantial policy backing:

The EU’s REPowerEU strategy aims to double annual heat pump installations and add 60 million new units by the end of the decade.
The UK’s Energy Security Bill sets a target of 600,000 installations per year by 2028, part of a wider £100 billion clean energy investment drive.
In the United States, heat pump sales in 2022 overtook gas furnace sales for the first time, with 4.3 million units sold.

Heat pump statistics: Investment Requirements and Manufacturing Trends

To align with Net Zero pathways, global investment in heat pump technology must rise to $160 billion annually by 2030, according to the IEA. This is over double current levels. Manufacturers are scaling up: nearly $4 billion in private capital is being deployed globally to expand production capacity, with a strong concentration in European facilities.

The period between 2021–2025 is forecast to see more heat pump installations than the entire previous decade. Still, this may not be sufficient: if adoption continues at the current rate, only 253 million heat pumps will be in operation by 2030, falling well short of the 600 million required under IEA’s Net Zero scenario. That represents a 58% shortfall—a gap that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for governments and private stakeholders alike.

What is in "The Future of Heating: The UK's Heat Pump Investment Roadmap" - the strategy document that the government published in 2023?

As the world accelerates its push towards net zero, the UK is positioning itself as a global leader in clean energy solutions. Central to this effort is the ambitious Heat Pump Investment Roadmap, a comprehensive plan designed to drive the adoption of heat pump technology across the country. This roadmap aims to significantly reduce carbon emissions from heating, which currently accounts for over a third of the UK's total carbon footprint.

Why Heat Pumps Are Vital to Net Zero

Heat pumps are a critical component of the UK's strategy to achieve net zero by 2050. With over 30 million homes and businesses requiring decarbonization in just 25 years, heat pumps offer a proven, scalable, and efficient solution. These systems can reduce carbon emissions by up to 70% compared to conventional gas boilers, with even greater reductions as the electricity grid becomes greener.

In addition to their environmental benefits, heat pumps improve energy security. With around half of the UK’s natural gas demand coming from heating, transitioning to heat pumps can reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, enhancing national energy independence.

Market Growth and Projections

The UK heat pump market is on the cusp of significant growth, with the government targeting a sixfold increase in annual installations—from 55,000 in 2021 to 600,000 by 2028. By 2035, this figure could reach nearly 2 million units annually. This rapid expansion is underpinned by a supportive policy framework, including:

Regulations to Phase Out Fossil Fuels: New buildings must adopt low-carbon heating solutions starting in 2025, and the sale of gas boilers will be phased out by 2035.
Financial Incentives: Over £12 billion in public investment through schemes like the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and Public Sector Decarbonisation Fund.
Clean Heat Market Mechanism: Set to launch in 2024, this initiative aims to drive sustained market growth by setting clear industry standards.

Why the UK is an Attractive Market for Heat Pump Investment

The UK offers a highly attractive environment for heat pump manufacturers and investors. Key advantages include:

Generous R&D Incentives: Tax credits and grants to support innovative heat pump technologies.
Skilled Workforce: Over 5.6 million people employed in engineering and manufacturing sectors.
Robust Export Opportunities: UK companies already export over £100 million worth of heat pumps and components annually.
Strategic Support for Green Industry: Initiatives like the Heat Pump Investment Accelerator Competition, which provides up to £30 million to support private sector investment in heat pump manufacturing.

Building the UK’s Heat Pump Supply Chain

To meet growing demand, the UK is investing in local supply chains, including:

Manufacturing and Assembly: Significant investments in new factories and production lines.
Thermal Battery and Cylinder Production: Facilities for advanced heat storage solutions.
Smart Control Systems: Innovations in energy management to optimize heat pump performance.

Investing in Skills for a Greener Workforce

The transition to heat pumps also requires a skilled workforce. The UK government has committed millions in training grants, supporting tens of thousands of new jobs in the green economy. This includes:

Heat Training Grants: £5 million to support 10,000 training opportunities in heat pump installation.
Apprenticeship Programs: New qualifications for Low Carbon Heating Technicians and enhanced support for engineering apprenticeships.