Can the UK Power a Heat Pump Future? Where the Electricity Will Come From?

As the UK transitions from gas boilers to heat pumps, a major question looms for households, policy-makers, and energy professionals alike: Where will all the electricity come from—especially if it must be clean and low-carbon?

In this deep dive, we explore whether the UK’s electricity system can support a fully electrified future of heat pumps, EVs, and Net Zero goals—and how.

The Electrification Challenge: More Power, Cleaner Power

The national goal is simple to state but complex to achieve:

• Remove gas boilers, which currently dominate UK home heating

• Replace them with low-carbon electric solutions such as heat pumps

• Ensure all this extra electricity comes from non-fossil fuel sources
  

But is that even possible?

According to the National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios, it is.

Their “Consumer Transformation” scenario—which assumes high public engagement in Net Zero and full electrification of heat—shows that by 2050:

• Electricity demand more than doubles, rising from 285 TWh (2023) to around 700 TWh

• Peak demand (how much electricity we need at any one time) grows from 58 GW to 119 GW

This would mean the UK needs to produce more power, more clean power, and be more flexible in how we use it.

The Future UK Energy Mix: Where the Power Comes From

To meet this demand, the UK will rely on a broad mix of energy sources, including:

Wind Power

• Onshore and offshore wind will remain the backbone of low-carbon generation.

• Turbines will often produce excess electricity at night, which can be stored for later use.
  

Solar Power

• Rooftop and utility-scale solar will contribute to daytime supply.

• Coupled with battery storage and smart tariffs, solar can help flatten peaks.

Nuclear Power

• Hinkley Point C and other nuclear projects (including small modular reactors) will supply baseline (always-on) power.

  
  

Interconnectors

• Electricity imports/exports between the UK and Europe will balance the system.
  

Hydrogen and CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage)

• Some gas will still be used—but either:

  • Captured and stored (CCS)

  • Replaced by green hydrogen (made via electrolysis using excess renewables)

Peak Electricity Demand: Why It Only Doubles

Interestingly, while total electricity use more than doubles, peak demand only doubles—thanks to flexibility and energy storage.

How?

• EV charging can be delayed or scheduled overnight

• Buildings and water cylinders can store heat, allowing systems to pause without discomfort

• Underfloor heating and thermal mass (like concrete floors) help regulate temperatures passively

This concept, called demand-side flexibility, is already being trialed in schemes like Octopus Energy’s smart tariffs and will play a crucial role in the transition.

Electricity vs Gas: How Much Energy Are We Switching?

Here’s the scale of the challenge in numbers:

Energy Use (2023)	Terawatt Hours (TWh)
UK Electricity (total)	~285 TWh
UK Gas (total)	~872 TWh
Residential Gas Only	~300 TWh

By 2050, if the UK shifts heavily to heat pumps:

• Residential gas demand drops from 300 TWh to nearly zero

• Total gas use drops from 872 TWh to ~127 TWh

• Electricity demand fills the gap, largely through clean energy sources

This means we’re replacing over 700 TWh of fossil gas with clean electric heating and transport—a massive structural change to how energy is made, stored, and consumed.

Where Does Hydrogen Fit In?

Hydrogen often gets overhyped as a home heating fuel. But under serious scenarios like those from National Grid ESO, its role is far more strategic.

Hydrogen will be used to:

• Power heavy industry (e.g. steel, chemicals)

• Fuel backup power stations during cold, windless periods (“Dunkelflaute”)

• Store surplus wind power for later use

👉 It won’t be burned in homes. That’s inefficient and expensive compared to running a heat pump.

What Makes the Model Work?

The FES scenario that allows us to decarbonize heating hinges on several critical assumptions:

1. Lower Average Thermostat Settings

• Home heating shifts from 20.1°C to 19.5°C average indoor temperatures

• Achieved via better insulation and continuous low-level heating from heat pumps

• Slightly cooler, but more consistent and comfortable
  

2. Widespread Heat Pump Adoption

• 1 million heat pumps installed per year by 2030

• Rising to 1.5 million per year by 2035

• Enabled by a skilled workforce, simpler installs, and government support (like the Boiler Upgrade Scheme)
  

3. Massive Grid Investment

• West London already faces delays due to grid constraints from data centers

• Upgrades to local and national grid infrastructure are essential

Will It Really Happen?

Despite the huge challenge, the ESO’s tone is cautiously optimistic. They aren’t promising it’ll be easy—but they do believe it’s technically and economically feasible, if we plan, invest, and act.

This means:

• Upskilling 10,000s of heat pump installers

• Scaling wind, nuclear, and hydrogen infrastructure

• Building flexibility into energy demand

• Supporting consumers with tariffs, grants, and education

A Heat Pump Future Is Electrifying—but Achievable

The switch to electric heat pumps isn’t just a technological upgrade. It’s part of a national energy transformation, replacing gas with clean electricity and ensuring a secure, flexible, Net Zero future.

According to the UK’s own energy system operator, the plan can work—if we move quickly, smartly, and together.